Selection Effects and Deterrence

@article{Fearon2002SelectionEA,
  title={Selection Effects and Deterrence},
  author={James D. Fearon},
  journal={International Interactions},
  year={2002},
  volume={28},
  pages={29 - 5}
}
  • J. Fearon
  • Published 1 January 2002
  • Business
  • International Interactions
The empirical question of how often deterrent threats issued during international disputes succeed has been hotly debated for years, with some researchers arguing that virtually no robust cases of success can be identified. I argue that what appears to be an empirical and methodological debate actually arises from the inadequacy of classical rational deterrence theory, which fails to comprehend the implications of states' strategic self-selection into international disputes. Rational self… 
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