Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean

  title={Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean},
  author={Ronald W. Lindsay and Jinlun Zhang and Axel J. Schweiger and Mark A. Steele},
[1] How well can the extent of arctic sea ice be predicted for lead periods of up to one year? The forecast ability of a linear empirical model is explored. It uses as predictors historical information about the ocean and ice obtained from an ice–ocean model retrospective analysis. The monthly model fields are represented by a correlation-weighted average based on the predicted ice extent. The forecast skill of the procedure is found by fitting the model over subsets of the available data and… CONTINUE READING
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