Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use

  title={Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use},
  author={Detlef van Vuuren and Marcel T. J. Kok and Bastien Girod and Paul L. Lucas and Bert de Vries},
  journal={Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions},
A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture
The scenario matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies and the possible trade-offs and synergies.
Grounding global environmental assessments through bottom-up futures based on local practices and perspectives
Future scenarios and pathways of potential development trajectories are powerful tools to assist with decision-making to address many sustainability challenges. Such scenarios play a major role in
Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments
This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments, and highlights what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future.
Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways
More often than not, assessments of future climate risks are based on future climatic conditions superimposed on current socioeconomic conditions only. The new IPCC-guided alternative global
Towards Innovative Solutions through Integrative Futures Analysis - Preliminary qualitative scenarios
This report presents preliminary results of developing qualitative global water scenarios based on the conceptual framework that has been developd specifically for this effort, which provides clear representation of important dimensions in the areas of Nature, Economy and Society and Water dimensions that are embedded in them.
Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
It is concluded that the SSP–RCP scenario framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs, however, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges.


Global Scenarios: Background Review for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
The long-range outlook for the world’s ecosystems depends on the course taken by global development in the coming decades. Current global trends and ecological dynamics are consistent with very
Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges
  • E. Parson
  • Environmental Science, Computer Science
  • 2008
The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.
Are Existing Global Scenarios Consistent with Ecological Feedbacks?
Scenarios can help planners and decision makers to think through uncertainties about the future and make decisions that are robust to a variety of possible outcomes. To develop useful scenarios we
Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future
In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how
Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate Change
Conditional probabilistic projections have the potential to account more fully for uncertainty in emissions within conditional storylines about future development patterns, to provide a context for judging the consistency of individual scenarios with a given storyline, and to provide insight into relative likelihoods across storylines, at least from a demographic perspective.
Global environmental assessments : information and influence
Knowledge about environmental problems has expanded rapidly in recent decades, as have the number and variety of processes for making large-scale scientific assessments of those problems and their
1 Evaluating the Influence of Global Environmental Assessments 1
Introduction Global environmental changes and scientific assessments of those changes have become increasingly common elements in international, national, and even local policymaking and decision