Scenarios: Leapfrog, Lock-In, and Lopsided

@article{Leifman2019ScenariosLL,
  title={Scenarios: Leapfrog, Lock-In, and Lopsided},
  author={Michael Leifman},
  journal={IO: Productivity},
  year={2019}
}
  • M. Leifman
  • Published 19 February 2019
  • Economics
  • IO: Productivity
This paper presents the details of three scenarios -- leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided -- that describe an illustrative set of technological states. Based largely on expert interviews, the paper argues that the technology outcomes are heavily attributable to the actions (or in some cases, inaction) of policy makers and incumbents. For each scenario, the paper presents descriptive levels of technology achievement and market outcomes for the energy, transport, and water sectors. One of the central… 

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