Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?

@inproceedings{Armstrong2000SalesFF,
  title={Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?},
  author={J. Scott Armstrong and Vicki G. Morwitz and V. Ezhil Kumar},
  year={2000}
}
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References

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Using Segmentation to Improve Sales Forecasts Based on Purchase Intent: Which “Intenders” Actually Buy?
The authors investigate whether the use of segmentation can improve the accuracy of sales forecasts based on stated purchase intent. The common current practice is to prepare a sales forecast by
Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design
Abstract Surveys of consumer intentions to buy are inefficient predictors of purchase rates because they do not provide accurate estimates of mean purchase probability. This is a consequence of the
Adjusting Stated Intention Measures to Predict Trial Purchase of New Products: A Comparison of Models and Methods
Several of the largest marketing research suppliers estimate that 70 to 90% of their clients use purchase intention scales in some form on a regular basis. Though there have been many studies of
Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings
This paper compares consumer likelihood of purchase ratings for a proposed new product to their actual purchase behavior after the product was introduced. The ratings were obtained from a mail survey
The Effect of Measuring Intent on Brand-Level Purchase Behavior
Previous research has demonstrated that merely asking consumers purchase intent questions has a significant impact on their actual purchase incidence in the category. Our article extends this
Combining Forecasts
To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal
Predicting Behavior from Intention-to-Buy Measures: The Parametric Case
TLDR
A probabilistic model that converts stated purchase intents into purchase probabilities is developed and shows the consistency of those bounds with observed behavior, except in predictable cases such as new products and business markets.
The Use of Intentions Data to Predict Behavior: A Best-Case Analysis
Abstract In surveys individuals are routinely asked to predict their future behavior, that is, to state their intentions. This article studies the relationship between stated intentions and
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