Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?

@inproceedings{Armstrong2000SalesFF,
  title={Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?},
  author={J. Scott Armstrong and Vicki G. Morwitz and V. Ezhil Kumar},
  year={2000}
}
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187 Citations
Highly Influential Citations
5
Background Citations
46
Methods Citations
5
Results Citations
1

187 Citations

Citation Type

Citation Type

When Do Purchase Intentions Predict Sales?
Marketing managers routinely use purchase intentions to predict sales. The purpose of this paper is to identify factors associated with an increased or decreased correlation between purchase…
Do consumer survey data help improve US vehicle sales forecasts?
PurposeThis study is concerned with evaluating the Federal Reserve forecasts of light motor vehicle sales. The goal is to assess accuracy gains from using consumer vehicle-buying attitudes and…
Consumers' Purchase Intentions and Their Behavior
Purchase intentions are frequently measured and used by marketing managers as an input for decisions about new and existing products and services. Purchase intentions are correlated and predict…
Experimental approach to assessing actual wine purchase behavior
Purpose – The use of intentions to forecast behavior follows from the assumption that intentions are a strong indicator of an individual's actual purchase behavior. Yet most studies found the…
Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data
Intentions are measures of individuals’ plans, goals, or expectations about what they will do in the future and are often used to forecast what people will do in the future. I develop nine principles…
Predicting growth in US durables spending using consumer durables-buying attitudes
Stated intentions and purchase behavior: A unified model ☆
On the reliability and predictive validity of purchase intention measures
This paper reports some further analyses and applications of Morrison's model of the predictive relationship between measures of intentions and subsequent purchasing behavior. A review of published…
Customer equity drivers and future sales
Research on linking operational marketing inputs to customer attitudes and customer behavior has been gaining significance concomitant with the growing recognition that customers are market-based…
Combining Forecasts
To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal…
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References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 86 REFERENCES
Using Segmentation to Improve Sales Forecasts Based on Purchase Intent: Which “Intenders” Actually Buy?
The authors investigate whether the use of segmentation can improve the accuracy of sales forecasts based on stated purchase intent. The common current practice is to prepare a sales forecast by…
Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design
Abstract Surveys of consumer intentions to buy are inefficient predictors of purchase rates because they do not provide accurate estimates of mean purchase probability. This is a consequence of the…
Adjusting Stated Intention Measures to Predict Trial Purchase of New Products: A Comparison of Models and Methods
Several of the largest marketing research suppliers estimate that 70 to 90% of their clients use purchase intention scales in some form on a regular basis. Though there have been many studies of…
Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings
This paper compares consumer likelihood of purchase ratings for a proposed new product to their actual purchase behavior after the product was introduced. The ratings were obtained from a mail survey…
The Effect of Measuring Intent on Brand-Level Purchase Behavior
Previous research has demonstrated that merely asking consumers purchase intent questions has a significant impact on their actual purchase incidence in the category. Our article extends this…
Combining Forecasts
To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal…
Predicting Behavior from Intention-to-Buy Measures: The Parametric Case
TLDR
A probabilistic model that converts stated purchase intents into purchase probabilities is developed and shows the consistency of those bounds with observed behavior, except in predictable cases such as new products and business markets.
The Use of Intentions Data to Predict Behavior: A Best-Case Analysis
Abstract In surveys individuals are routinely asked to predict their future behavior, that is, to state their intentions. This article studies the relationship between stated intentions and…
The accuracy of the Conference Board's buying plans index: A comparison of judgmental vs. extrapolation forecasting methods
Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography
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