Safe leads and lead changes in competitive team sports.

  title={Safe leads and lead changes in competitive team sports.},
  author={Aaron Clauset and M Kogan and Sidney Redner},
  journal={Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics},
  volume={91 6},
We investigate the time evolution of lead changes within individual games of competitive team sports. Exploiting ideas from the theory of random walks, the number of lead changes within a single game follows a Gaussian distribution. We show that the probability that the last lead change and the time of the largest lead size are governed by the same arcsine law, a bimodal distribution that diverges at the start and at the end of the game. We also determine the probability that a given lead is… 

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