Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations

@inproceedings{Collopy1992RuleBasedFD,
  title={Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations},
  author={F. Collopy and J. Armstrong},
  year={1992}
}
This paper examines the feasibility of rule -based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and domain knowledge to produce forecasts according to features of the data. We developed a rule base to make annual extrapolation forecasts for economic and demographic time series. The development of the rule base drew upon protocol analyses of five experts on forecasting methods. This rule base, consisting of 99 rules, combined forecasts from four extrapolation methods (the random… Expand
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