A global comparative static model is used to project the world economy to 2010, noting the trends in the self-sufficiency rates for agricultural products in China. If there is no change in Chinas trade policy regime, agricultural self-sufficiency rates are shown to decline but only slowly. Apart from the processed food sector, only small increases in protection would be needed to hold the line at 2001 self-sufficiency levels. To achieve full self-sufficiency in all agricultural products by 2010, however, substantial new protection would be required. Moreover, this protection would be both contractionary and redistributive, harming worker households and retarding growth in the modern sector of Chinas economy.