Revised Models of the "Rally Phenomenon": The Case of the Carter Presidency

  title={Revised Models of the "Rally Phenomenon": The Case of the Carter Presidency},
  author={Karen A.M. O’ Callaghan and Simo V. Virtanen},
  journal={The Journal of Politics},
  pages={756 - 764}
This research note reports an examination of presidential approval ratings during the Iran hostage crisis. Models of intervention and transfer function are estimated by way of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao analysis using Gallup opinion data from January 1976 to December 1979. Although it is fairly well accepted that the hostage crisis precipitated a "rally-round-the-flag" effect for President Carter, an examination of popularity dynamics reveals the unique influence of the crisis on Independents, a… 

Patriotism or Opinion Leadership?

In this study, the “rally effect”—the propensity for the American public to put aside political differences and support the president during international crises—is measured by considering the

The rally 'round the flag effect in U.S. foreign policy crises, 1950–1985

We calculate the rally 'round the flag effect (Mueller, 1970, 1973) for all 41 U.S. foreign policy crises, 1950–1985, identified by the International Crisis Behavior Project (Wilkenfeld, Brecher, and

Who Rallies? The Anatomy of a Rally Event

On June 26, 1993, President Clinton ordered a missile attack on Iraq's intelligence headquarters in Baghdad. The president's approval level surged-a textbook example of a "rally." But who rallied?

Joining and Leaving the Rally Understanding the Surge and Decline in Presidential Approval Following 9/11

This paper explains the surge and decline of presidential approval following rally events. We develop a theoretical framework grounded in psychology and political entrepreneurship to explain not only

The political advantage of a volatile market: the relationship between Presidential popularity and the ‘investor fear gauge’

The Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) is the premier established benchmark of near-term market volatility. It is also referred to as the ‘investor fear gauge’ because it

Anatomy of a Rally Effect: George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism

The “rally-round-the-flag effect” sparked by the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington and by President George W. Bush's prompt launching of the War on Terrorism cries out for the

The Unfinished Presidencies: Why Incumbent Presidents May Lose Their Re-Election Bids

With the conclusion of the 2016 presidential election in the US, presidential scholars have shifted their attention not only to the Trump presidency, but also towards his possible re-election

and Public Opinion

public approval. Widespread support in the public augments a president's ability to bargain and to persuade. Confronted with a popular president, Congress, the private sector, the bureaucracy, the

Rally ‘Round the Union Jack? Public Opinion and the Use of Force in the United Kingdom, 1948–2001

This paper provides the most comprehensive and extensive analysis to date of the possibility of a “rally ‘round the flag” effect—an increase in support for the government caused by involvement in



Policy failure and public support: The Iran-Contra affair and public assessment of President Reagan

The Iran-Contra affair is an example of the type of event that is expected to give rise to a “rally” of public opinion behind the president. However, the public's response to this event,

The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents Among Occupational and Partisan Groups

This article investigates the response of political support for American presidents among occupational and partisan groups to economic and noneconomic events within the framework of a dynamic model


An examination of public support during the presidency of Ronald Reagan reveals a unique pattern. The major features include two instances of rapidly declining support followed by historically

Guns and Butter and Government Popularity in Britain

  • H. Norpoth
  • Economics
    American Political Science Review
  • 1987
Britain under the government of Prime Minister Thatcher provides a unique opportunity to probe the effects of both war and macroeconomic performance on government popularity. Monthly ratings for

Explaining Presidential Popularity: How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anomalies

  • S. Kernell
  • Political Science
    American Political Science Review
  • 1978
Within the last ten years a new conventional wisdom has surfaced in political science which tells us that presidents inexorably become less popular over time. Not much else matters. Neither the

Going Public: New Strategies of Presidential Leadership

Presidents are uniquely positioned to promote themselves and their polices directly to the public. Using sympathetic crowds as a backdrop, a president can rally public opinion to his side, along the

War, presidents, and public opinion

Originally published in 1973 by John Wiley & Sons, this volume presents a rigorous analysis of public opinion on the wars in Korea and Vietnam, and on the Presidents who led us during those

Time series analysis, forecasting and control

This revision of a classic, seminal, and authoritative book explores the building of stochastic models for time series and their use in important areas of application —forecasting, model specification, estimation, and checking, transfer function modeling of dynamic relationships, modeling the effects of intervention events, and process control.

Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing

The relationship between cointegration and error correction models, first suggested by Granger, is here extended and used to develop estimation procedures, tests, and empirical examples. A vector of