Retrospective Causal Inference with Machine Learning Ensembles: An Application to Anti-recidivism Policies in Colombia

@article{Samii2016RetrospectiveCI,
  title={Retrospective Causal Inference with Machine Learning Ensembles: An Application to Anti-recidivism Policies in Colombia},
  author={Cyrus Samii and Laura Paler and Sarah Zukerman Daly},
  journal={Political Analysis},
  year={2016},
  volume={24},
  pages={434 - 456}
}
We present new methods to estimate causal effects retrospectively from micro data with the assistance of a machine learning ensemble. This approach overcomes two important limitations in conventional methods like regression modeling or matching: (i) ambiguity about the pertinent retrospective counterfactuals and (ii) potential misspecification, overfitting, and otherwise bias-prone or inefficient use of a large identifying covariate set in the estimation of causal effects. Our method targets… 
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