# Research Report CALCULATION OF FORENSIC LIKELIHOOD RATIOS: USE OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS TO COMPARE THE OUTPUT OF SCORE- BASED APPROACHES WITH TRUE LIKELIHOOD-RATIO VALUES

@article{Morrison2015ResearchRC, title={Research Report CALCULATION OF FORENSIC LIKELIHOOD RATIOS: USE OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS TO COMPARE THE OUTPUT OF SCORE- BASED APPROACHES WITH TRUE LIKELIHOOD-RATIO VALUES}, author={Geoffrey Stewart Morrison}, journal={arXiv: Applications}, year={2015} }

A group of approaches for calculating forensic likelihood ratios first calculates scores which quantify the degree of difference or the degree of similarity between pairs of samples, then converts those scores to likelihood ratios. In order for a score-based approach to produce a forensically interpretable likelihood ratio, however, in addition to accounting for the similarity of the questioned sample with respect to the known sample, it must also account for the typicality of the questioned… CONTINUE READING

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## Avoiding overstating the strength of forensic evidence: Shrunk likelihood ratios/Bayes factors.

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