Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.

@inproceedings{Kahneman2002RepresentativenessRA,
  title={Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.},
  author={Daniel Kahneman and Shane Frederick},
  year={2002}
}
The program of research now known as the heuristics and biases approach began with a survey of 84 participants at the 1969 meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Society and the American Psychological Association (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971). The respondents, including several authors of statistics texts, were asked realistic questions about the robustness of statistical estimates and the replicability of research results. The article commented tongue-in-heek on the prevalence of a belief that… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

Heuristics in Numerical Cognition: Implications for Pricing

In this chapter we review two distinct streams of literature, the numerical cognition literature and the judgment and decision making literature, to understand the psychological mechanisms that

Bats, balls, and substitution sensitivity: cognitive misers are no happy fools

Results show that people are less confident in their substituted, erroneous bat-and-ball answer than in their answer on the control version that does not give rise to the substitution, calling into question the characterization of the human reasoner as a happy fool who blindly answers erroneous questions without realizing it.

MAPS OF BOUNDED RATIONALITY: A PERSPECTIVE ON INTUITIVE JUDGMENT AND CHOICE

The work cited by the Nobel committee was done jointly with the late Amos Tversky (1937‐1996) during a long and unusually close collaboration. Together, we explored the psychology of intuitive

Two sides of the same coin: Information processing style and reverse biases

This paper examines the effect of information processing styles (indexed by the Rational-Experiential Inventory of Pacini & Epstein, 1999) on adherence to bias judgments, and particularly to reverse

Recognizing revisitation of the representativeness heuristic: an analysis of answer key attributes

The general objective of this article is to contribute to the limited research on teachers’ probabilistic knowledge. More specifically, this article aims to contribute to an established thread of

On the Category Adjustment Model : Another look at Huttenlocher , Hedges , and Vevea ( 2000 )

Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Vevea (2000) (Why do categories affect stimulus judgment? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 129, 220-241) introduce the category adjustment model (CAM), which

Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle

It is described how people may face few opportunities to learn the benefits of averaging and how misappreciating averaging contributes to poor intuitive strategies for combining estimates.

Likes and dislikes: A social cognitive perspective on attitudes

The vast majority of articles and chapters about attitudes (including this one) introduce the topic by referencing the famous quote by Gordon Allport that attitudes are “the most distinctive and

The source of the truth bias: Heuristic processing?

Support is found for a new account: that the bias reflects whether raters perceive the statement to be internally consistent, which is evidence of a shift from (biased) heuristic processing to (reasoned) analytical processing.

On the category adjustment model: another look at Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Vevea (2000)

Huttenlocher et al. (J Exp Psychol Gen 129:220–241, 2000) introduce the category adjustment model (CAM). Given that participants imperfectly remember stimuli (which we refer to as “targets”), CAM
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 1,409 REFERENCES

Judgments of and by Representativeness

Several years ago, we presented an analysis of judgment under uncertainty that related subjective probabilities and intuitive predictions to expectations and impressions about representativeness. Two

BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS

“Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory ( z = 2.23, p If you feel that the probability is somewhere around .85, you may

The availability heuristic revisited: Ease of recall and content of recall as distinct sources of information.

According to Tversky and Kahneman's (1973, p. 208) availability heuristic, individuals estimate the frequency of an event or the likelihood of its occurrence “by the ease with which instances or

Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

The overconfidence observed in calibration studies has recently been questioned on both psychological and methodological grounds. In the first part of the article we discuss these issues and argue

On the Importance of Random Error in the Study of Probability Judgment. Part I: New Theoretical Developments

Erev, Wallsten, and Budescu (1994) demonstrated that over- and underconfidence can be observed simultaneously in judgment studies, as a function of the method used to analyze the data. They proposed

Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures

Introduction Any significant activity of forecasting involves a large component of judgment, intuition, and educated guesswork. Indeed, the opinions of experts are the source of many technological,

Frequency, Probability, and Prediction: Easy Solutions to Cognitive Illusions?

It is found that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability, while results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion.

Availability of Information and the Aggregation of Confidence in Prior Decisions

Abstract Recent research on calibration has shown that judgments about aggregate performance are consistently lower in magnitude than confidence-judgments about single items (the “aggregation
...