• Economics
  • Published 2007

Reporting Biases and Survey Results: Evidence from European Professional Forecasters

@inproceedings{Garca2007ReportingBA,
  title={Reporting Biases and Survey Results: Evidence from European Professional Forecasters},
  author={Juan Angel Garc{\'i}a and Andr{\'e}s Manzanares},
  year={2007}
}
Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased towards favourable outcomes: they suggest too high growth and too low inflation rates. Most importantly, for each survey round, the aggregate survey results based on the average of the individual point… CONTINUE READING

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