Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries

  title={Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries},
  author={Seth Flaxman and Swapnil Mishra and Axel Gandy and H. Juliette T. Unwin and Helen Coupland and Thomas A. Mellan and H. Zhu and Tresnia Berah and Jeffrey W. Eaton and Pablo N P Guzman and Nora Schmit and Lucia Cilloni and Kylie E. C. Ainslie and Marc Baguelin and Isobel M. Blake and Adhiratha Boonyasiri and Olivia Boyd and Lorenzo Cattarino and Carmen Ciavarella and Laura V. Cooper and Z Cucunuba Perez and Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg and Amy Dighe and A Djaafara and Ilaria Dorigatti and Sabine van Elsland and Richard G. FitzJohn and Han Fu and Katy A. M. Gaythorpe and Lily Geidelberg and Nicholas C. Grassly and Will Green and Timothy B. Hallett and Arran Hamlet and Wes Hinsley and Benjamin Jeffrey and David Jorgensen and Edward S. Knock and Daniel J. Laydon and G Nedjati Gilani and Pierre Nouvellet and Kris V. Parag and Igor Siveroni and Hayley A. Thompson and Robert Verity and Erik M. Volz and Caroline E. Walters and Haowei Wang and Y. Wang and Oliver John Watson and Peter Winskill and X Xi and Charles Whittaker and Patrick G. T. Walker and Azra C. Ghani and Christl Ann Donnelly and Steven Riley and Lucy C. Okell and Michaela A. C. Vollmer and Neil M. Ferguson and Samir Bhatt},
Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy, H Juliette T Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Cilloni, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Isobel Blake, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Constanze Ciavarella, Laura Cooper, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas… 

Report 23: State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States

This exhibition celebrates the 20th anniversary of the publication of the first book of this kind to be published in the United States, entitled “The Art of War: A Biography of a Professionals”.


genza provocata dalla diffusione globale del virus SARS-CoV-2, il patogeno responsabile dell’epidemia di COVID-19 (CoronaVirusDisease-19). Si tratta di un virus ad RNA della stessa famiglia del virus

COVID–19 in Italia: una Percezione Amplificata del Rischio? [COVID-19 in Italy: an amplified risk perception?]

Il presente report si pone l’obiettivo di far luce sulla controversa stima del Tasso di Letalità del COVID–19. Nella prima sezione, il Tasso di Letalità è calcolato dapprima in forma grezza,

Posicionamento – Protocolo de Reconexão dos Serviços de Cardiologia com os Pacientes Durante a Pandemia de COVID-19 – 2020

Realização: Sociedade Brasileira de Cardiologia Conselho de Normatizações e Diretrizes (2020-2021): Brivaldo Markman Filho, Antonio Carlos Sobral Sousa, Aurora Felice Castro Issa, Bruno Ramos

Estimating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on documented infections with COVID-19: A cross-country analysis

This cross-country analysis provides early estimates regarding the impact of different NPIs for controlling the COVID-19 epidemic and are relevant for evaluating current health-policies.

What do we know, what we don’t and what we cannot know so far about COVID-19: The case of Russia

It is argued that exogenous sources, such as the number of internet search queries related to COVID and excess mortality over the previous year, provide a more impartial picture of the pandemia and its consequences, and it is concluded that better information and more diversified health policies are needed.

Estimating the Cumulative Incidence of COVID-19 in the United States Using Four Complementary Approaches

Three complementary approaches aimed at estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 in each state in the US as well as in New York City are introduced, demonstrating the value of leveraging existing influenza-like-illness surveillance systems for measuring the burden of new diseases that share symptoms with influenza- like-illnesses.

Inferring the effective fraction of the population infected with Covid-19 from the behaviour of Lombardy, Madrid and London relative to the remainder of Italy, Spain and England

An estimate of the total fraction of the population which had already become infected by April 10th is obtained, and this fraction is higher than expected, in the most heavily affected regions, Lombardy, Madrid and London.

Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States

The number and timing of infections are inferred based on the infection fatality rate measured in populations that were tested universally for SARS-CoV-2 based on a model developed by The COVID-19 Response Team.

Covid Act Now Model Reference/Assumptions

  • Sociology
Author: ​Max Henderson​, ​Eric Carlson​, and many others Updated: 4/12/20 This document provides details on the model used by Coronavirus Act Now, including how it works, what inputs drive it, and



Report 12: The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression

Patrick GT Walker*, Charles Whittaker*, Oliver Watson, Marc Baguelin, Kylie E C Ainslie, Sangeeta Bhatia, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina

Commentary on Ferguson, et al., “Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand”

A coarse taxonomy of models is discussed and the context and significance of the Imperial College and other models in contributing to the analysis of COVID-19 are explored.

Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

The results presented here suggest the ongoing epidemics in the UK and Italy started at least a month before the first reported death and have already led to the accumulation of significant levels of herd immunity in both countries.

Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease

These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and demonstrate a strong age-gradient in risk.

Age profile of susceptibility, mixing, and social distancing shape the dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China

Analysis of contact surveys data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the COVID-19 outbreak and contact tracing information from Hunan Province indicates that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control CO VID-19.

The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy

The transmission potential of COVID-19 is very high and the number of critical cases may become largely unsustainable for the healthcare system in a very short-time horizon; a slight decrease of the reproduction number is observed, possibly connected with an increased population awareness and early effect of interventions.

A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics

This tool produces novel, statistically robust analytical estimates of R that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of the serial interval and should help epidemiologists quantify temporal changes in the transmission intensity of future epidemics by using surveillance data.

Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

It is estimated that 86% of all infections were undocumented before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions, which explains the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicates that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic

It is argued that the household reproduction number is useful in assessing the impact of measures that target the household for isolation, quarantine, vaccination or prophylactic treatment, and measures such as social distancing and school or workplace closures which limit between-household transmission, all of which play a key role in current thinking on future infectious disease mitigation.

Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

It is shown that holidays lead to a 20–29% reduction in the rate at which influenza is transmitted to children, but that they have no detectable effect on the contact patterns of adults, as well as predicting the effect of school closure during a pandemic.