Relaxing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty

  title={Relaxing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty},
  author={Giacomo Albi and Lorenzo Pareschi and Mattia Zanella},
After an initial phase characterized by the introduction of timely and drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments are preparing to relax such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual… Expand
Universal Features of Epidemic Models Under Social Distancing Guidelines
The main objective of this study is to reduce the disease burden in a population, here measured as the peak of the infected population, while simultaneously minimizing the length of time the population is socially distanced, utilizing both a single period of social distancing as well as periodic relaxation. Expand
Spatial spread of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy using multiscale kinetic transport equations with uncertainty
A space-dependent multiscale model to describe the spatial spread of an infectious disease under uncertain data with particular interest in simulating the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy is introduced. Expand
Hyperbolic compartmental models for epidemic spread on networks with uncertain data: application to the emergence of Covid-19 in Italy
The model describes the spatial movement and interactions of a population partitioned, from an epidemiological point of view, on the basis of an extended compartmental structure and divided into commuters, moving on a suburban scale, and non-commuters, acting on an urban scale. Expand
Incorporating Social Determinants of Health into Modelling of COVID-19 and other Infectious Diseases: A Baseline Socio-economic Compartmental Model
It is argued for the importance of incorporating relevant social determinants of health into the modelling dynamics of COVID-19, and how global variation of these conditions may be integrated into relevant models is shown. Expand


Control with uncertain data of socially structured compartmental epidemic models
After the introduction of the optimal control problem, an instantaneous approximation of the control is formulated that allows us to derive new feedback controlled compartmental models capable of describing the epidemic peak reduction. Expand
Control with uncertain data of socially structured compartmental epidemic models
The need for long-term interventions shows that alternative actions based on the social structure of the system can be as effective as the more expensive global strategy in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Expand
Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures
Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, it is concluded that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures. Expand
Social contacts, epidemic spreading and health system. Mathematical modeling and applications to COVID-19 infection.
A Social SIR model is built, able to accurately follow the effect of the decrease in contacts resulting from the lockdown measures adopted in various European countries in the first phase of the COVID-19 epidemic. Expand
A feedback SIR (fSIR) model highlights advantages and limitations of infection-based social distancing
A modified SIR model is derived in which the average daily contacts between susceptible and infected population are reduced based on the known infection levels, capturing the effects of social distancing policies, and feedback-adjustment of the transmission rate causes a structural reduction in infection peak. Expand
Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy
It is demonstrated that restrictive social-distancing measures will need to be combined with widespread testing and contact tracing to end the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Expand
Time-optimal control strategies in SIR epidemic models
It is proved that, for all the policies investigated, only bang–bang controls with at most one switch are admitted, and that, in a wide range of epidemiological circumstances, it may be impossible to minimize the total infectious burden while minimizing the epidemic duration. Expand
Threshold behaviour of a SIR epidemic model with age structure and immigration
A quasi-threshold theorem is proved, in the sense that, below the threshold, the density of infectives is close to 0, while it is away from 0, above the threshold; furthermore, conditions that guarantee uniqueness of steady states are obtained. Expand
Restarting the Economy While Saving Lives Under COVID-19
We provide, calibrate and test a realistic model of the spread of SARS-Cov-2 in an economy with different risks related to age and sectors. The model considers hospital congestion and response ofExpand
Optimal control for pandemic influenza: the role of limited antiviral treatment and isolation.
The implementation of optimal control strategies involving antiviral treatment and/or isolation measures can reduce significantly the number of clinical cases of influenza and can reduce the pressures placed on the health care infrastructure by a pandemic reducing the stress put on the system during epidemic peaks. Expand