• Corpus ID: 238253376

Relative Contagiousness of Emerging Virus Variants: An Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta Variants (preprint)

@inproceedings{Hansen2021RelativeCO,
  title={Relative Contagiousness of Emerging Virus Variants: An Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta Variants (preprint)},
  author={Peter Reinhard Hansen},
  year={2021}
}
We propose a simple dynamic model for estimating the relative contagiousness of two virus variants. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference is conveniently invariant to variation in the total number of cases over the sample period and can be expressed as a logistic regression. Using weekly Danish data we estimate the Alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 to increase the reproduction number by a factor of 1.51 [CI 95%: 1.50, 1.53] relative to the ancestral variant. The Delta variant increases the… 

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