Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings

@inproceedings{armstrong1983RelativeAO,
  title={Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings},
  author={jeanne. armstrong},
  year={1983}
}
This paper identifies and analyzes previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts produced by management, analysts, and extrapolative techniques indicated that: (1) management forecasts were superior to professional analyst forecasts (the mean absolute percentage errors were 15.9 and 17.7, respectively, based on five studies using data from 1967-1974) and (2) judgmental forecasts (both management and analysts) were superior to extrapolation forecasts on 14… CONTINUE READING

From This Paper

Topics from this paper.

References

Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 59 references

Management forecasts, stock prices, and public policy,

  • W. Ruland
  • Review of Business and Economic Research,
  • 1978
Highly Influential
4 Excerpts

The accuracy of forecasts by management and by financial analysts,

  • W. Ruland
  • Accounting Review,
  • 1978
Highly Influential
4 Excerpts

The predictability of corporate earnings,

  • R. M. Richards, D. R. Fraser
  • Atlanta Economic Review,
  • 1978
Highly Influential
5 Excerpts

A comparison of the accuracy of corporate and security analysts” forecasts of earnings: a reply,

  • B. A. Basi, K. J. Carey, R. D. Twark
  • Accounting Review,
  • 1977
Highly Influential
6 Excerpts

Business Adventures, New York: Weybright and Talley

  • J. N. Brooks
  • 1969
Highly Influential
4 Excerpts

An evaluation of security analysts

  • T. Crichfield, T. Dyckman, J. Lakonishok
  • forecasts,” Accounting Review,
  • 1978
Highly Influential
2 Excerpts

An evaluation of security analysts ” forecasts

  • T. Crichfield, T. Dyckman, J. Lakonishok
  • Accounting Review
  • 1978
Highly Influential
2 Excerpts

The accuracy of estimates of earnings from naive models,

  • K. J. Carey
  • Journal of Economics and Business,
  • 1978
Highly Influential
6 Excerpts

The accuracy of analysts” forecasts of earnings per share,

  • R. M. Barefield, E. E. Comiskey
  • Journal of Business Research,
  • 1975
Highly Influential
3 Excerpts

Financial analysts forecasts of earnings: a better surrogate for market expectations,

  • D. Fried, D. Givoly
  • Journal of Accounting and Economics,
  • 1982

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…