Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings

@inproceedings{Armstrong1983RelativeAO,
  title={Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings},
  author={J. Armstrong},
  year={1983}
}
  • J. Armstrong
  • Published 1983
  • Mathematics, Economics
  • This paper identifies and analyses previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts produced by management, analysts, and extrapolative techniques indicated that: (1) management forecasts were superior to professional analyst forecasts (the mean absolute percentage errors were 15.9 and 17.7, respectively, based on five studies using data from 1967-1974) and (2) judgmental forecasts (both management and analysts) were superior to extrapolation forecasts on 14… CONTINUE READING
    93 Citations

    References

    SHOWING 1-10 OF 58 REFERENCES
    Earnings Estimates and the Accuracy of Expectational Data
    • 117
    Executives' Forecasts of Earnings per Share versus Forecasts of Naive Models
    • 56
    A multivariate analysis of annual earnings forecasts generated from quarterly forecasts of financial
    • 142
    • PDF
    Security Price Reactions To Long-Range Executive Earnings Forecasts
    • 37
    The Predictive Content of Interim Reports- A Time Series Analysis
    • 26