Regression toward the mean in medical care costs. Implications for biased selection in health maintenance organizations.

@article{Welch1985RegressionTT,
  title={Regression toward the mean in medical care costs. Implications for biased selection in health maintenance organizations.},
  author={W. Pete Welch},
  journal={Medical care},
  year={1985},
  volume={23 11},
  pages={
          1234-41
        }
}
As more Americans choose among insurance plans, the possibility of biased selection increases in importance. Although regression toward the mean is recognized as a common problem in evaluating social programs, it has generally been ignored in studies of biased selection. Suppose that people are included in a group simply because they had expenditures in one year $100 below the mean; that is, health status or other risk factors are not part of the selection criteria. Empirically, the expected… CONTINUE READING

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