Regression to the Mean, Murder Rates, and Shall-Issue Laws

@article{Grambsch2008RegressionTT,
  title={Regression to the Mean, Murder Rates, and Shall-Issue Laws},
  author={Patricia M. Grambsch},
  journal={The American Statistician},
  year={2008},
  volume={62},
  pages={289 - 295}
}
  • P. Grambsch
  • Published 2008
  • Mathematics
  • The American Statistician
The relationship between state murder rates and the liberalization of conditions under which a citizen can obtain a permit to carry a concealed weapon (shall-issue laws) is controversial and important for policy. Many analyses have been done during the last decade, but regression to the mean has been ignored with the exception of two papers which concluded that it did not matter. We consider state murder rates for 1976–2001 and compare relative murder rate slopes (relative to the U.S. murder… Expand
Yet Another Refutation of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis—With Some Help From Moody and Marvell
Moody and Marvell’s recent article in this journal examines a regression-based calculation in Ayres and Donohue (2003a) that indicated, based on state-specific estimates that were generated usingExpand
Can Easing Concealed Carry Deter Crime
type="main"> Laws reducing hurdles to legally carrying concealed firearms are argued to have a deterrent effect on crime by increasing its perceived costs. This argument rests on the assumption thatExpand
The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States.
TLDR
The study synthesizes the available scientific data on the effects of various firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, participation in hunting and sport shooting, and other outcomes to build consensus around a shared set of facts. Expand
The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States.
: The RAND Corporation's Gun Policy in America initiative is a unique attempt to systematically and transparently assess available scientific evidence on the real effects of firearm laws andExpand
The Debate on Shall Issue Laws, Continued
In the September 2008 issue of this journal we criticized work by Ian Ayres and John Donohue on the relation between right-to-carry gun laws and crime rates. They replied in the January 2009 issue.Expand
Red State Blues: How the Conservative Revolution Stalled in the States
Over the last quarter century, a nationalized and increasingly conservative Republican Party made unprecedented gains at the state level, winning control of twenty-four new state governments.Expand
Feasible Policy Evaluation by Design: A Randomized Synthetic Stepped-Wedge Trial of Mandated Disclosure in King County
TLDR
This study provides the first evidence from a randomized trial of the causal effects of grading on health outcomes, and finds that the grading system had no appreciable effects on foodborne illness, hospitalization, or food handling practices but that the system may have marginally increased public engagement by encouraging higher reporting. Expand
Feasible Policy Evaluation by Design : A Randomized Synthetic Stepped-Wedge Trial in King County ∗
Evidence-based policy is limited by the perception that randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are expensive and infeasible. We argue that carefully tailored research design can overcome theseExpand
What Do We Know About the Association Between Firearm Legislation and Firearm-Related Injuries?
TLDR
High quality research on the association between the implementation or repeal of firearm legislation (rather than the evaluation of existing laws) and firearm injuries would lead to a better understanding of what interventions are likely to work given local contexts. Expand
Recommendations for Describing Statistical Studies and Results in General Readership Science and Engineering Journals
TLDR
This paper recommends how authors of statistical studies can communicate to general audiences fully, clearly, and comfortably and provides advice for editors of general journals on selecting high quality statistical articles without the need for exceptional work or expense. Expand
...
1
2
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 19 REFERENCES
Using Placebo Laws to Test "More Guns, Less Crime"
Abstract We reexamine Mustard and Lott’s controversial study on the effect of “shall-issue” gun laws on crime using an empirical standard error function randomly generated from “placebo” laws. WeExpand
Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis
John Lott and David Mustard have used regression analysis to argue forcefully that 'shall-issue' laws (which give citizens an unimpeded right to secure permits for concealed weapons) reduce violentExpand
The Effect of Concealed Weapons Laws: An Extreme Bound Analysis
John R. Lott and David B. Mustard (1997} provide evidence that enactment of concealed handgun ('right-to-carry') laws deters violent crime and induces substitution into property crime. A critique byExpand
Does the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns Deter Countable Crimes? Only a Count Analysis Can Say*
An analysis of the effects of right‐to‐carry laws on crime requires particular distributional and structural considerations. First, because of the count nature of crime data and the low number ofExpand
Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness*
  • C. Moody
  • Economics
  • The Journal of Law and Economics
  • 2001
In 1997, John Lott and David Mustard published an important paper in which they found that right‐to‐carry concealed weapons laws reduce violent crime. Although Lott and Mustard appear to do allExpand
Do Right‐To‐Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?
John R. Lott and David B. Mustard conclude that right‐to‐carry laws deter violent crime. Our reanalysis of Lott and Mustard's data provides no basis for drawing confident conclusions about the impactExpand
Crime, Deterrence, and Right‐to‐Carry Concealed Handguns
Using cross‐sectional time‐series data for U.S. counties from 1977 to 1992, we find that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes, without increasing accidental deaths. IfExpand
The effect of nondiscretionary concealed weapon carrying laws on homicide.
TLDR
No statistically significant association exists between changes in concealed weapon laws and state homicide rates, consistent with those of other published studies indicating that nondiscretionary concealed weapons laws are not associated with significant increases or decreases in homicide. Expand
Evaluating Gun Policy
Edited by Jens Ludwig and Philip J Cook. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2003. The United States has a big problem with gun injuries: it suffers tens of thousands of gun related deathsExpand
An evaluation of state firearm regulations and homicide and suicide death rates
TLDR
A “shall issue” law that eliminates most restrictions on carrying a concealed weapon may be associated with increased firearm homicide rates, but no law was associated with a statistically significant reduction in firearm homicide or suicide rates. Expand
...
1
2
...