• Corpus ID: 220919984

Regional now- and forecasting for data reported with delay: A case study in COVID-19 infections

@article{Nicola2020RegionalNA,
  title={Regional now- and forecasting for data reported with delay: A case study in COVID-19 infections},
  author={Giacomo De Nicola and Marc Schneble and G{\"o}ran Kauermann and Ursula Berger},
  journal={arXiv: Applications},
  year={2020}
}
Governments around the world continue to act to contain and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to continuously adapt policies and social distancing measures depending on the current state of the spread of the disease. In this context, it is crucial for policymakers to have a firm grasp on what the current state of the pandemic is as well as to have an idea of how the infective situation is going to unfold in the next days. However… 
Discussion on On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic
The authors make an important contribution presenting a comprehensive and thoughtful overview about the many different aspects of data, statistics and data analyses in times of the recent COVID-19
Combining Graph Neural Networks and Spatio-temporal Disease Models to Predict COVID-19 Cases in Germany
TLDR
A multimodal learning approach that combines the advantages of statistical regression and machine learning models for predicting local COVID-19 cases in Germany is presented and the results corroborate the necessity of including mobility data and showcase the flexibility and interpretability of the approach.
COVID-19 Pandemic and Agroecosystem Resilience: Early Insights for Building Better Futures
The way the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted human lives and livelihoods constituted a stress test for agroecosystems in developing countries, as part of rural–urban systems and the global economy. We

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 19 REFERENCES
Data-Based Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak
TLDR
Based on the publicly available epidemiological data for Hubei, China from January 11 to February 10, 2020, estimates of the main epidemiological parameters are provided, including an estimation of the case fatality and case recovery ratios, along with their 90% confidence intervals as the outbreak evolves.
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
TLDR
The results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a large effect on reducing transmission and continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.
COVID-19: One-month impact of the French lockdown on the epidemic burden
TLDR
The analysis shows that in absence of any control measures, the COVID-19 epidemic would have had a critical morbidity and mortality burden in France, overwhelming in a matter of weeks French hospital capacities.
Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
TLDR
The timeline of a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making is described and objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19 are provided.
Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures
TLDR
Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, it is concluded that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.
Forecasting of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Different Countries with ARIMA Models
TLDR
Mainland China and Thailand were successful in haltering COVID-19 epidemic and Investigating their protocol in this control like quarantine should be in the first line of other countries program.
Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19
TLDR
The role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures are examined, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations.
Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: the 13th Armitage lecture
TLDR
A multivariate time series model for weekly surveillance counts on norovirus gastroenteritis from the 12 city districts of Berlin, in six age groups, from week 2011/27 to week 2015/26 is described and the following year is used to assess the quality of the predictions.
Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries
TLDR
The results show that China leads all other countries in the range of 29 days for South Korea and 44 days for the United States, and the future collapse of the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom and Switzerland in case of the explosion scenario is predicted.
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
TLDR
It is estimated that 86% of all infections were undocumented before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions, which explains the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicates that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
...
...