Reflections on Soros: Mach, Quine, Arthur and far-from-equilibrium dynamics

  title={Reflections on Soros: Mach, Quine, Arthur and far-from-equilibrium dynamics},
  author={R. Cross and Harold Hutchinson and H. Lamba and D. Strachan},
  journal={Journal of Economic Methodology},
  pages={357 - 367}
We argue that the Soros account of reflexivity does not provide a clear-cut distinction between a social science such as economics and the physical sciences. It is pointed out that the participants who attempt to learn from refutations of conjectures in the Soros world are likely to be haunted by the Duhem–Quine problem of conjointness of hypotheses and unfocused refutation. On a more constructive note, we argue that models of inductive learning, in which participants form conjectures on the… Expand
Dynamic Model of Optimal Production Control in a Hysteretic Behaviour of Economic Agents
The hysteresis nature of demand, depending on the price ratio and purchasing power, is well-known, but mathematical models that describe this relationship have not been developed so far. This articleExpand
Realization of Arbitrary Hysteresis by a Low-dimensional Gradient Flow
We consider gradient systems with an increasing potential that depends on a scalar parameter. As the parameter is varied, critical points of the potential can be eliminated or created throughExpand
Dynamics of Discrete Time Systems with a Hysteresis Stop Operator
A piecewise linear two-dimensional dynamical system that couples a linear equation with the so-called stop operator is considered, motivated by modifications to general-equilibrium macroeconomic models that attempt to capture the frictions and memory-dependence of realistic economic agents. Expand


Fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle
I am honored that the editors of the Journal of Economic Methodology have created this special issue on the subject of reflexivity and have invited me, as well as a distinguished group of scholars,Expand
Implausible Equilibrium Solutions in Economics and Finance
When modelling the aggregate behavior of a population over long periods of time the standard approach is to consider the system as always being in equilibrium -- using averaging procedures based uponExpand
On George Soros and Economic Analysis
This essay considers the Soros critique of the epistemological and analytical foundations underlying theories of rational expectations equilibria and efficient markets. Similarities between Soros andExpand
Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality
The type of rationality we assume in economics--perfect, logical, deductive rationality--is extremely useful in generating solutions to theoretical problems. But it demands much of humanExpand
From a Logical Point of View
It is the wish of the author to keep general terms distinct from abstract singular terms, so that the over-all dis­ pensability of some assumption that has always rankled as ad hoc and unintuitive is discovered. Expand
A threshold model of investor psychology
We introduce a class of agent-based market models founded upon simple descriptions of investor psychology. Agents are subject to various psychological tensions induced by market conditions andExpand
More heat than light: Contents
Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market
We propose a theory of asset pricing based on heterogeneous agents who continually adapt their expectations to the market that these expectations aggregatively create. And we explore the implicationsExpand
Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions
This is a fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of Reckoning with Risk. Numbers don't lie - but they oftenExpand
Post Walrasian Macroeconomics: Agent-Based Financial Markets: Matching Stylized Facts with Style
Empirical facts from financial data pose some of the most dicult puzzles for equilibrium macroeconomic modeling. Features such as volatility, excess kurtosis, and conditional heteroscedasticity areExpand