Refining epidemiological forecasts with simple scoring rules

@article{Moore2021RefiningEF,
  title={Refining epidemiological forecasts with simple scoring rules},
  author={Robert E. Moore and Conor Rosato and Simon Maskell},
  journal={Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences},
  year={2021},
  volume={380}
}
Estimates from infectious disease models have constituted a significant part of the scientific evidence used to inform the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. These estimates can vary strikingly in their bias and variability. Epidemiological forecasts should be consistent with the observations that eventually materialize. We use simple scoring rules to refine the forecasts of a novel statistical model for multisource COVID-19 surveillance data by tuning its smoothness hyperparameter… 
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