Reevaluating sighting models and moving beyond them to test and contextualize the extinction of the thylacine

  title={Reevaluating sighting models and moving beyond them to test and contextualize the extinction of the thylacine},
  author={Colin J. Carlson and Alexander L. Bond and Kevin R. Burgio},
  journal={Conservation Biology},
In “Estimating the Extinction Date of the Thylacine with Mixed Certainty Data,” we (Carlson et al. 2018a) used the sighting record, including controversial post-1936 sightings, to model the probability that the thylacine has been classified accurately as extinct. We found astronomically low odds that the thylacine is extant and argue that a camera-trap search for the species in Cape York, northern Queensland, may be motivated by false hope. In a response to our article, Brook et al. (2018… 
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Estimating the extinction date of the thylacine with mixed certainty data

The results suggest that attempts to rediscover the thylacine will be unsuccessful and that the continued survival of the thymacine is entirely implausible based on most current mathematical theories of extinction.

On Uncertain Sightings and Inference about Extinction

  • A. SolowA. Beet
  • Environmental Science
    Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
  • 2014
The extinction of many species can only be inferred from the record of sightings of individuals, and a Bayesian approach to such inference is applied to a sighting record of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

Deficiencies in estimating the extinction date of the thylacine with mixed certainty data

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So near and yet so far

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Spatial extinction date estimation: a novel method for reconstructing spatiotemporal patterns of extinction and identifying potential zones of rediscovery

A spatially-explicit method of interpolating extinction date estimators is introduced, allowing users to estimate spatiotemporal surfaces of population persistence from georeferenced sighting data of variable quality.