Reduced-order precursors of rare events in unidirectional nonlinear water waves

  title={Reduced-order precursors of rare events in unidirectional nonlinear water waves},
  author={William T. Cousins and Themistoklis P. Sapsis},
  journal={Journal of Fluid Mechanics},
  pages={368 - 388}
We consider the problem of short-term prediction of rare, extreme water waves in irregular unidirectional fields, a critical topic for ocean structures and naval operations. One possible mechanism for the occurrence of such rare, unusually intense waves is nonlinear wave focusing. Recent results have demonstrated that random localizations of energy, induced by the linear dispersive mixing of different harmonics, can grow significantly due to modulation instability. Here we show how the… 
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  • W. Cousins, T. Sapsis
  • Physics
    Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
  • 2015
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  • I. Alber
  • Physics
    Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences
  • 1978
A simplified nonlinear spectral transport equation, for narrowband Gaussian random surface wavetrains, slowly varying in space and time, is derived fron the weakly nonlinear equations of Davey &
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