Reduced-order precursors of rare events in unidirectional nonlinear water waves

@article{Cousins2016ReducedorderPO,
  title={Reduced-order precursors of rare events in unidirectional nonlinear water waves},
  author={William T. Cousins and Themistoklis P. Sapsis},
  journal={Journal of Fluid Mechanics},
  year={2016},
  volume={790},
  pages={368 - 388}
}
We consider the problem of short-term prediction of rare, extreme water waves in irregular unidirectional fields, a critical topic for ocean structures and naval operations. One possible mechanism for the occurrence of such rare, unusually intense waves is nonlinear wave focusing. Recent results have demonstrated that random localizations of energy, induced by the linear dispersive mixing of different harmonics, can grow significantly due to modulation instability. Here we show how the… 
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