Recognizing revisitation of the representativeness heuristic: an analysis of answer key attributes

  title={Recognizing revisitation of the representativeness heuristic: an analysis of answer key attributes},
  author={Egan J. Chernoff},
The general objective of this article is to contribute to the limited research on teachers’ probabilistic knowledge. More specifically, this article aims to contribute to an established thread of research that investigates relative likelihood comparisons. To meet these objectives, prospective mathematics teachers were presented two different answer keys to a ten question multiple-choice quiz and were asked to determine and justify which of the two was least likely to occur. Unlike previous… 

Unasked But Answered: Comparing the Relative Probabilities of Coin Flip Sequence Attributes

The objective of this article is to contribute to research on teachers’ probabilistic knowledge and reasoning. To meet this objective, prospective mathematics teachers were presented coin flip

Comparing the Relative Likelihood of Events: The Fallacy of Composition.

The objective of this article is to contribute to the documented dearth of research on teachers’ probabilistic knowledge. Prospective teachers of elementary school mathematics were asked to identify

Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Maximum Likelihood Heuristic in a Problem With a Random Transfer

Judgments and reasoning in probabilistic tasks that require comparing two probabilities either with or without introducing an additional degree of uncertainty are explored, showing that students focused on the most likely event and derived a prediction based on this event that led them to answer incorrectly.

Comparing the Relative Probabilities of Events

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the research investigating the use of logical fallacies, in particular the fallacy of composition, to account for normatively incorrect responses given

Contextual Considerations in Probabilistic Situations: An Aid or a Hindrance?

The responses of secondary school teachers to a probability task with an infinite sample space are examined via the theoretical lens of reducing abstraction to show a strong dependence on a contextualized interpretation of the task.


After attaining democracy in 1994 South Africa has had a number of educational reforms particularly in the mathematics curriculum with the probability topic being introduced as compulsory for the

Discussing the Conditional Probability from a Cognitive Psychological Perspective

Probability signifies the most obscure and the least achievable content among other mathematics areas; particularly, the conditional probability concept that should not be left behind any standard

Commentary on Probabilistic Thinking: Presenting Plural Perspectives

Those of you familiar with research investigating probabilistic thinking in the field of mathematics education, might, at this point in the book, be expecting a “wish list” for future research, which

Research on the reasoning, teaching and learning of probability and uncertainty

In this editorial, we set out the aims in the call to publish papers on informal statistical inference, randomness, modelling and risk. We discuss how the papers published in this issue have

Analysis of Ability for Understanding the Basic Concepts of Probability Theory

  • G. M. TinungkiB. Nurwahyu
  • Education
    Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Mathematics and Mathematics Education (ICMMEd 2020)
  • 2021
This study aims to analyse the skills to understand mathematical concepts in the Probability Theory subject. As a scientific discipline, Probability Theory is one of the statistics study program



Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.

The program of research now known as the heuristics and biases approach began with a survey of 84 participants at the 1969 meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Society and the American

Inconsistencies in Students' Reasoning about Probability.

Subjects were asked to select from among four possible sequences the "most likely" to result from flipping a coin five times. Contrary to the results of Kahneman and Tversky (1972), the majority of

Middle School and High School Students' Probabilistic Reasoning on Coin Tasks.

This article describes a subset of results from a larger study (Rubel, 2002) that explored middle school and high school students' probabilistic reasoning abilities across a variety of probabilistic

Heuristics and Biases: Introduction – Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now

In the late 1960s and early 1970s, a series of papers by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman revolutionized academic research on human judgment. The central idea of the “heuristics and biases” program –

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty are described: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development.


“Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory ( z = 2.23, p If you feel that the probability is somewhere around .85, you may

Orchestrating Semiotic Leaps from Tacit to Cultural Quantitative Reasoning—The Case of Anticipating Experimental Outcomes of a Quasi-Binomial Random Generator

This article reports on a case study from a design-based research project that investigated how students make sense of the disciplinary tools they are taught to use, and specifically, what personal,

Disruption of the representativeness heuristic: Can we be perturbed into using correct probabilistic reasoning?

This study provided graduate students enrolled in beginning inferential statistics with a series of experiences which seemed to disrupt faulty logic by having them experience logical inconsistencies in subsequent statistical or probability problems.