Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting


Eighty-four post-1990 empirical studies of international tourism demand modeling and forecasting using econometric approaches are reviewed. New developments are identified and it is shown that applications of advanced econometric methods improve the understanding of international tourism demand. An examination of the 22 studies which compare forecasting performance suggests that no single forecasting method can outperform the alternatives in all cases. However, the timevarying parameter (TVP) model and structural time series model with causal variables perform consistently well.

4 Figures and Tables

Cite this paper

@inproceedings{Li2008RecentDI, title={Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting}, author={Gang Li and Haiyan Song and STEPHEN F. WITT}, year={2008} }