Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections

@article{Rahmstorf2007RecentCO,
  title={Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections},
  author={Stefan Rahmstorf and Anny Cazenave and John Alexander Church and James E. Hansen and Ralph F. Keeling and David E. Parker and Richard C. J. Somerville},
  journal={Science},
  year={2007},
  volume={316},
  pages={709 - 709}
}
We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas… 

Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011

We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Statistical climate-change scenarios

We report on climate projections generated by a simple model of climate change. The model captures the effects of variations in surface solar radiation, using information over the period 1959–2002

Global sea level linked to global temperature

TLDR
A simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature is proposed and tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century.

Comment to "Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections" by Rahmstorf et al

It is shown in this comment that considering the Mauna Loa observation of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the mean near surface temperature anomalies for the period from the

Antarctic climate change and the environment

Abstract The Antarctic climate system varies on timescales from orbital, through millennial to sub-annual, and is closely coupled to other parts of the global climate system. We review these

Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections

Retrospectively comparing future model projections to observations provides a robust and independent test of model skill. Here we analyze the performance of climate models published between 1970 and

Lower bounds to future sea-level rise

Biases and Model Agreement in Projections of Climate Extremes over the Tropical Pacific

AbstractUsing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) general circulation models (GCMs), projections of a range of climate extremes are explored for the western Pacific. These

How do UK climate scenarios compare with recent observations?

National climate scenarios are increasingly being used in long‐term strategic planning and decision‐making, but their projections have rarely been compared with observations. Recent changes in

Climate Change 2009: Faster Change & More Serious Risks

The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is an outstanding source of information on our current scientific understanding of the climate system and how it is responding to the changes in the
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 10 REFERENCES

Interannual variability in upper ocean heat content, temperature, and thermosteric expansion on global scales

[1] Satellite altimetric height was combined with approximately 1,000,000 in situ temperature profiles to produce global estimates of upper ocean heat content, temperature, and thermosteric sea level

A 20th century acceleration in global sea‐level rise

Multi‐century sea‐level records and climate models indicate an acceleration of sea‐level rise, but no 20th century acceleration has previously been detected. A reconstruction of global sea level

Scientific basis

  • S. Bray
  • Medicine
    British Dental Journal
  • 2005

Rev. Geophys

  • Rev. Geophys
  • 2004

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 1448

Geophys. Res. Lett

  • Geophys. Res. Lett
  • 1029

Published online 2 February 2007; 10.1126/science.1136843 Include this information when citing this paper

  • Res. Lett., 33,
  • 2006

1126/science.1136843 Include this information when citing this paper

  • BREVIA
  • 2006

Hobart Tasmania, 7001, Australia. 4 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

  • Hobart Tasmania, 7001, Australia. 4 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

J. Geophys. Res

  • J. Geophys. Res
  • 1029