Reasons for confidence.

@article{Koriat1980ReasonsFC,
  title={Reasons for confidence.},
  author={Asher Koriat and Sarah Lichtenstein and Baruch Fischhoff},
  journal={Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning \& Memory},
  year={1980},
  volume={6},
  pages={107-118}
}
People are often overconfident in evaluating the correctness of their knowledge. The present studies investigated the possibility that assessment of confidence is biased by attempts to justify one's chosen answer. These attempts include selectively focusing on evidence supporting the chosen answer and disregarding evidence contradicting it. Experiment 1 presented subjects with two-alternative questions and required them to list reasons for and against each of the alternatives prior to choosing… 

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