Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): implications for improving Bayesian reasoning

@inproceedings{Tubau2015ReasoningAC,
  title={Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): implications for improving Bayesian reasoning},
  author={Elisabet Tubau and David Aguilar-Lleyda and Eric D. Johnson},
  booktitle={Front. Psychol.},
  year={2015}
}
The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a two-step decision problem involving counterintuitive conditional probabilities. The first choice is made among three equally probable options, whereas the second choice takes place after the elimination of one of the non-selected options which does not hide the prize. Differing from most Bayesian problems, statistical information in the MHD has to be inferred, either by learning outcome probabilities or by reasoning from the presented sequence of events. This… CONTINUE READING
Highly Cited
This paper has 18 citations. REVIEW CITATIONS
Related Discussions
This paper has been referenced on Twitter 2 times. VIEW TWEETS

From This Paper

Figures, tables, and topics from this paper.

References

Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 76 references

Learning inhibition

A. K. Harris
2011
View 8 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

Enhancing probabilistic reasoning : the role of causal graphs , statistical format and numerical skills

E. Tubau
Learn . Individ . Differ . • 2008
View 13 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

Learning to open Monty Hall ’ s doors

I. Palacios-Huerta
Exp . Econ . • 2003
View 4 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

TheMontyHall dilemma

D. Granberg, T. A. Brown
Pers . Soc . Psychol . Bull . • 1995
View 5 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

A randomised Monty Hall experiment : the positive effect of conditional frequency feedback

L. Saenen, W. Van Dooren, P. Onghena
Think . Reason . • 2014
View 6 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

Dissociating choice and judgment

J. M. Press. Stibel, I. E. Dror, T. Ben-Zeev
2009
View 10 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…