Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): implications for improving Bayesian reasoning

  title={Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): implications for improving Bayesian reasoning},
  author={Elisabet Tubau and David Aguilar-Lleyda and Eric D. Johnson},
  booktitle={Front. Psychol.},
The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a two-step decision problem involving counterintuitive conditional probabilities. The first choice is made among three equally probable options, whereas the second choice takes place after the elimination of one of the non-selected options which does not hide the prize. Differing from most Bayesian problems, statistical information in the MHD has to be inferred, either by learning outcome probabilities or by reasoning from the presented sequence of events. This… CONTINUE READING
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