Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

@article{Tizzoni2012RealtimeNF,
  title={Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm},
  author={M. Tizzoni and P. Bajardi and C. Poletto and J. J. Ramasco and D. Balcan and B. Gonçalves and N. Perra and V. Colizza and Alessandro Vespignani},
  journal={BMC Medicine},
  year={2012},
  volume={10},
  pages={165 - 165}
}
  • M. Tizzoni, P. Bajardi, +6 authors Alessandro Vespignani
  • Published 2012
  • Medicine
  • BMC Medicine
  • BackgroundMathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success… CONTINUE READING
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