Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

  title={Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm},
  author={M. Tizzoni and P. Bajardi and C. Poletto and J. J. Ramasco and D. Balcan and B. Gonçalves and N. Perra and V. Colizza and Alessandro Vespignani},
  journal={BMC Medicine},
  pages={165 - 165}
  • M. Tizzoni, P. Bajardi, +6 authors Alessandro Vespignani
  • Published 2012
  • Medicine
  • BMC Medicine
  • BackgroundMathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success… CONTINUE READING
    214 Citations
    Age-specific contacts and travel patterns in the spatial spread of 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic
    • 63
    • PDF
    The future of influenza forecasts
    • 30
    • PDF
    Projected spread of Zika virus in the Americas
    • 23
    • PDF
    Characterizing the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics
    • 99
    • PDF
    A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic
    • 5
    • Highly Influenced


    Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009)
    • H. Nishiura
    • Computer Science, Medicine
    • Biomedical engineering online
    • 2011
    • 56
    • PDF
    Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility
    • 336
    • PDF
    Real-time epidemic forecasting for pandemic influenza.
    • 94
    Model predictions and evaluation of possible control strategies for the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in Italy.
    • 46
    • Highly Influential
    • PDF
    Potential for a global dynamic of Influenza A (H1N1)
    • 69
    • Highly Influential
    • PDF
    Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions
    • 613
    • PDF
    Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling
    • 104
    • PDF