Real-time Recession Probability with Hidden Markov Model and Unemployment Momentum

  title={Real-time Recession Probability with Hidden Markov Model and Unemployment Momentum},
  author={Stephen H.T. Lihn},
  journal={Forecasting Models eJournal},
  • Stephen H.T. Lihn
  • Published 2019
  • Economics
  • Forecasting Models eJournal
  • We show how to construct a composite Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to calculate real-time recession probability, using the jubilee and ldhmm packages in R. The input data is the unemployment rate (UNRATE) which is released monthly by the U.S. government. There are two sub-models: The one-year momentum model and the 6-month acceleration model. The product of the two generates the recession probability. Our model demonstrates that positive momentum in unemployment kicks off a recession. The momentum… CONTINUE READING


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