Reading Between the Lines : Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text ∗

@inproceedings{Mller2016ReadingBT,
  title={Reading Between the Lines : Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text ∗},
  author={Hannes M{\"u}ller and Christopher Rauh and May},
  year={2016}
}
This article provides a new methodology to predict conflict by using newspaper text. Through machine learning, vast quantities of newspaper text are reduced to interpretable topic shares. We use changes in topic shares to predict conflict one and two years before it occurs. In our predictions we distinguish between predicting the likelihood of conflict… CONTINUE READING