Radiological Risk Assessment by Convergence Methodology Model in RDD Scenarios.


A radiological dispersal device (RDD) is a simple weapon capable of causing human harm, environmental contamination, disruption, area denial, and economic cost. It can affect small, large, or long areas depending on atmospheric stability. The risk of developing a radio-induced cancer depends on exposure, and an effective response depends upon available timely guidance. This article proposes and demonstrates a convergence of three different capabilities to assess risk and support rapid safe resource efficient response. The three capabilities that are integrated are Hotspot for dispersion, RERF for epidemiological risk, and RESRAD-RDD for response guidance. The combined methodology supports decisions on risk reduction and resource allocation through work schedules, the designation and composition of response teams, and siting for operations. In the illustrative RDD scenario, the contamination area for sheltering, evacuation, and long-term public concern was greatest for calm atmospheric conditions, whilst close-quarter responders faced highest dose rates for neutral atmospheric conditions. Generally, the risks to women responders were found to be significantly greater than for men, and the risks to 20-year-old responders were three times that of their 60-year-old counterparts for similar exposure.

DOI: 10.1111/risa.12557

Cite this paper

@article{Rother2016RadiologicalRA, title={Radiological Risk Assessment by Convergence Methodology Model in RDD Scenarios.}, author={Fagner Chagas Rother and Wilson F Rebello and Matthew J F Healy and Mauricio M Silva and Paulo A M Cabral and Helio de Carvalho Vital and Edson Ramos Andrade}, journal={Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, year={2016}, volume={36 11}, pages={2039-2046} }