Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza.

  title={Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza.},
  author={Peter Caley and David J. Philp and Kevin McCracken},
  journal={Journal of the Royal Society, Interface},
  volume={5 23},
Local epidemic curves during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic were often characterized by multiple epidemic waves. Identifying the underlying cause(s) of such waves may help manage future pandemics. We investigate the hypothesis that these waves were caused by people avoiding potentially infectious contacts-a behaviour termed 'social distancing'. We estimate the effective disease reproduction number and from it infer the maximum degree of social distancing that occurred during the course of the… CONTINUE READING

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