Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate System Properties with the Use of Recent Climate Observations

  title={Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate System Properties with the Use of Recent Climate Observations},
  author={C. E. Forest and P. Stone and A. Sokolov and M. Allen and M. Webster},
  pages={113 - 117}
  • C. E. Forest, P. Stone, +2 authors M. Webster
  • Published 2002
  • Medicine, Environmental Science
  • Science
  • We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity and −0.30 to −0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing. The oceanic… CONTINUE READING
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