Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact

  title={Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact},
  author={Dashun Wang and Chaoming Song and A L Barabasi},
  pages={127 - 132}
Citation Grabbers Is there quantifiable regularity and predictability in citation patterns? It is clear that papers that have been cited frequently tend to accumulate more citations. It is also clear that, with time, even the most novel paper loses its currency. Some papers, however, seem to have an inherent “fitness” that can be interpreted as a community's response to the research. Wang et al. (p. 127; see the Perspective by Evans) developed a mechanistic model to predict citation history… 

Long-term scientific impact revisited

It is argued that state-of-the-art models of citation dynamics and algorithms for forecasting nonstationary time series are very likely to fail to predict the long-term citation counts of highly-cited papers using citation data collected in a short period of time after publication.

A data analytic approach to quantifying scientific impact

Learning to Predict Citation-Based Impact Measures

This work finds that existing probabilistic models for paper citations can predict measures of scientific impact for papers and authors, namely citation rates and h-indices, with surprising accuracy, even 10 years into the future.

Understanding the Impact of Early Citers on Long-Term Scientific Impact

It is found that influential EC negatively affects LTSI possibly owing to attention stealing, and it is shown that incorporating EC properties in the state-of-the-art supervised citation prediction models leads to high performance margins.


Two possible reasons are considered that might explain the deviation from linear negative-slope (Hirsch) citation-paper rank distribution, reflecting the fact of growing productivity in the course of a scientific career, as well as the increase of publication rates on global scale.

Predicting the citations of scholarly paper

Identifying the Key Reference of a Scientific Publication

This paper proposes a simple method using a local diffusion process on citation networks for identifying the key references for each scientific publication and defines an effective citation metric for quantifying the actual impact of each paper and its evolution.

Large-scale analysis of micro-level citation patterns reveals nuanced selection criteria

This study provides a quantitative approach to addressing the long-standing issue that not all citations count the same, by studying the usage of citations throughout the full text of 156,558 articles published by the Public Library of Science and tracing their bibliometric history from among 60 million records obtained from the Web of Science.

The Impact of Citation Timing: A Framework and Examples

A framework for the comparison of different citation time patterns is provided using principles drawn from the literature on stochastic dominance and it is shown that comparisons of time patterns can be based on the general characteristics of cost of delay functions.

Inferring the causal effect of journals on citations

  • V. Traag
  • Business
    Quantitative Science Studies
  • 2021
This work compares citations of preprints to citations of the published version to infer the causal effect of journals on citations, and finds that high-impact journals select articles that tend to attract more citations and augment the citation rate of published articles.



The history and meaning of the journal impact factor.

The journal impact factor was created to help select additional source journals and is based on the number of citations in the current year to items published in the previous 2 years, which allows for the inclusion of many small but influential journals.

How popular is your paper? An empirical study of the citation distribution

Abstract:Numerical data for the distribution of citations are examined for: (i) papers published in 1981 in journals which are catalogued by the Institute for Scientific Information (783,339 papers)

Universality of citation distributions: Toward an objective measure of scientific impact

It is shown that the probability that an article is cited c times has large variations between different disciplines, but all distributions are rescaled on a universal curve when the relative indicator cf = c/c0 is considered, where c0 is the average number of citations per article for the discipline.

Effectiveness of Journal Ranking Schemes as a Tool for Locating Information

This work systematically evaluates the effectiveness of journals, through the work of editors and reviewers, at evaluating unpublished research, and develops a model for the asymptotic number of citations accrued by papers published in a journal that closely matches the data.

Characterizing and Modeling Citation Dynamics

This work investigates bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions, and proposes a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness which successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions.

Why the impact factor of journals should not be used for evaluating research

Alternative methods for evaluating research are being sought, such as citation rates and journal impact factors, which seem to be quantitative and objective indicators directly related to published science.

The most influential journals: Impact Factor and Eigenfactor

  • A. Fersht
  • Education
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 2009
Progressin science is driven by the publication of novel ideas and experiments, most usually in peer-reviewed journals, but nowadays increasingly just on the internet. We all have our own ideas of

Nonuniversal power law scaling in the probability distribution of scientific citations

A model for the distribution of scientific citations is developed and it is found that papers having few citations are cited mainly by the direct mechanism, and papers already having many citations (“classics”) are cited mostly by the indirect mechanism.

How Citation Boosts Promote Scientific Paradigm Shifts and Nobel Prizes

It is found that groundbreaking discoveries of Nobel Prize Laureates and other famous scientists are not only acknowledged by many citations of their landmark papers, but also boost the citation rates of their previous publications.

Measures for measures

Comparing commonly used measures of author quality, the mean number of citations per paper emerges as a better indicator than the more complex Hirsch index; a third method, the number of papers published per year, measures industry rather than ability.