Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations

@article{Murphy2004QuantificationOM,
  title={Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations},
  author={James M. Murphy and David M. H. Sexton and David N. Barnett and Gareth S. Jones and Mark J. Webb and Matthew Collins and David Alan Stainforth},
  journal={Nature},
  year={2004},
  volume={430},
  pages={768-772}
}
Comprehensive global climate models are the only tools that account for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate change at both a global and regional level. Planners are typically faced with a wide range of predicted changes from different models of unknown relative quality, owing to large but unquantified uncertainties in the modelling process. Here we report a systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a… 

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