Protected-area targets could be undermined by climate change-driven shifts in ecoregions and biomes

  title={Protected-area targets could be undermined by climate change-driven shifts in ecoregions and biomes},
  author={Solomon Z. Dobrowski and Caitlin E. Littlefield and Drew S. Lyons and Clark Hollenberg and Carlos Carroll and Sean A. Parks and John T. Abatzoglou and Katherine C. Hegewisch and Josh A. Gage},
  journal={Communications Earth \& Environment},
Expanding the global protected area network is critical for addressing biodiversity declines and the climate crisis. However, how climate change will affect ecosystem representation within the protected area network remains unclear. Here we use spatial climate analogs to examine potential climate-driven shifts in terrestrial ecoregions and biomes under a +2 °C warming scenario and associated implications for achieving 30% area-based protection targets. We find that roughly half of land area… 

Efficacy of the global protected area network is threatened by disappearing climates and potential transboundary range shifts

Protected areas are essential to conserving biodiversity, yet changing climatic conditions challenge their efficacy. For example, novel and disappearing climates within the protected area network

Limited co-benefits of protected areas in southwest China under current climate change and human modification.

An ambitious new Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework "Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework" has been developed. However, the combined effects of climate change and human modification

Vulnerability to climate change of species in protected areas in Thailand

Although 23% of Thailand’s land is in protected areas, these are vulnerable to climate change. We used spatial distribution modelling for 866 vertebrate and 591 plant species to understand potential

Climate Change Impacts on Ecoregions in the Kangchenjunga Landscape of India, Bhutan, and Nepal

United methodologies quantify impacts of climate on within the Hindu-Kush Himalayas. study presents a method for linking ecoregion shifts due to climate change to potential for Abstract Climate

Implications of exceeding the Paris Agreement for mammalian biodiversity

The Paris Agreement settled to limit global warming to 2°C and possibly 1.5°C from pre‐industrial times. However, little is known about the implications of such climatic goals for biodiversity once

30×30 biodiversity gains rely on national coordination

Protecting 30% of land by 2030 is an invaluable opportunity to combat the ongoing biodiversity crisis, but critical questions remain regarding what biodiversity to prioritize, how to coordinate

Combined effects of climate and fire‐driven vegetation change constrain the distributions of forest vertebrates during the 21st century

Biodiversity conservation relies in part on enduring habitat in protected areas. In fire‐prone ecosystems, shifts in species’ ranges will result both from changes in climate and fire‐catalysed

Who will be where: Climate driven redistribution of fish habitat in southern Germany

To improve the robustness of projections of freshwater fish distributions under climate change, species distribution models (SDMs) were calculated for six fish species in southwestern Germany with

A climate risk analysis of Earth’s forests in the 21st century

Earth’s forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally

Suitability of Natura 2000 sites for threatened freshwater species under projected climate change

Correspondence Christoph Chucholl, Fisheries Research Station Baden-Württemberg, Langenargen, Germany. Email: Abstract 1. As part of the world's largest coordinated



Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide

This work calculates the projected gain and loss of climate conditions within terrestrial protected areas worldwide and guides adaptation measures towards PAs that are strongly affected by climate change, and of low adaption capacity and high conservation value.

Keeping pace with climate change in global terrestrial protected areas.

Adaptation policies that improve the complementarity of climatic conditions within PAs will help countries safeguard biodiversity.

Rewilding in the face of climate change

  • C. CarrollR. Noss
  • Environmental Science
    Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
  • 2020
It is found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change and more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugeia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends.

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network

A continent‐wide climate change vulnerability assessment is performed whereby the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America is compared to the projected end‐of‐century climate and potential patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas are identified.

Adapting landscapes to climate change: examples of climate-proof ecosystem networks and priority adaptation zones

1. Climate change has been inducing range shifts for many species as they follow their suitable climate space and further shifts are projected. Whether species will be able to colonize regions where

Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America

This study identified climate connectivity areas across North America by delineating paths between current climate types and their future analogs that avoided nonanalogous climates, and used centrality metrics to rank the contribution of each location to facilitating dispersal across the landscape.

Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape

It is demonstrated that increasing climate connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to suitable climates.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

The negative effects of climate change cannot be adequately anticipated or prepared for unless species responses are explicitly included in decision-making and global strategic frameworks, and feedbacks on climate itself are documented.