Proper Scoring Rules for Evaluating Asymmetry in Density Forecasting

  title={Proper Scoring Rules for Evaluating Asymmetry in Density Forecasting},
  author={Matteo Iacopini and Francesco Ravazzolo and Luca Rossini},
  journal={DecisionSciRN: Decision-Making \& Forecasting (Topic)},
This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, such as the tails or the center of a variable's range. A test is also introduced to statistically compare the predictive ability of different forecasts. The ACPS is of general use in any situation where the decision maker has asymmetric preferences in the evaluation of the… 

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Measure and integration theory, Volume 26

  • 2011

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