Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise.

  title={Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise.},
  author={Diana Stralberg and Steven M. Matsuoka and Aria Hamann and Erin M. Bayne and P{\'e}ter S{\'o}lymos and Fiona K. A. Schmiegelow and X. Q. Wang and Steven G. Cumming and S. Song},
  journal={Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America},
  volume={25 1},
  • D. Stralberg, S. Matsuoka, S. Song
  • Published 2015
  • Environmental Science
  • Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America
For climate change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive data set of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique… 

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