Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the Public

  title={Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the Public},
  author={Sean J. Westwood and Solomon Messing and Yphtach Lelkes},
  journal={The Journal of Politics},
  pages={1530 - 1544}
Recent years have seen a dramatic change in horse-race coverage of elections in the United States—shifting focus from late-breaking poll numbers to sophisticated meta-analytic forecasts that emphasize candidates’ chance of victory. Could this shift in the political information environment affect election outcomes? We use experiments to show that forecasting increases certainty about an election’s outcome, confuses many, and decreases turnout. Furthermore, we show that election forecasting has… 
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