Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

  title={Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble},
  author={Malcolm John Roberts and Joanne Camp and Jon Seddon and Pier Luigi Vidale and Kevin I. Hodges and Beno{\^i}t Vanni{\`e}re and Jennifer V. Mecking and Reindert J. Haarsma and Alessio Bellucci and Enrico Scoccimarro and Louis‐Philippe Caron and Fabrice Chauvin and Laurent Terray and Sophie Valcke and M. P. Moine and Dian Ariyani Putrasahan and Christopher D. Roberts and Retish Senan and Colin M. Zarzycki and Paul Aaron Ullrich and Yohei Yamada and Ryo Mizuta and Chihiro Kodama and Dan Fu and Qiuying Zhang and Gokhan Danabasoglu and Nan A. Rosenbloom and Hong Wang and Lixin Wu},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements… 
Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in a multiresolution ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global climate models
Tropical cyclones undergo extratropical transition (ET) in every ocean basin. Projected changes in ET frequency under climate change are uncertain and differ between basins, so multimodel studies
Assessing the performance of 33 CMIP6 models in simulating the large-scale environmental fields of tropical cyclones
General circulation model (GCM) biases are one of the important sources of biases and uncertainty in dynamic downscaling–based simulations. The ability of regional climate models to simulate tropical
A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk
There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and
Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models
  • K. Emanuel
  • Environmental Science
    Journal of Climate
  • 2021
Global models comprising the sixth-generation Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are downscaled using a very high-resolution but simplified coupled atmosphere–ocean tropical
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Projected future changes of tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the Northern Hemisphere based on a multi-timescale regression model
Large uncertainties exist in the projected future TC genesis frequency (TCGF) due to the existence of various timescale internal climate variabilities and external forcing. Here, we introduce a
Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic
Tropical cyclones are a major hazard for numerous countries surrounding the tropical-to-subtropical North Atlantic sub-basin including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Their intense winds, which
Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates
Tropical cyclones (TCs, also known as hurricanes and typhoons) generally form at low latitudes with access to the warm waters of the tropical oceans, but far enough off the equator to allow planetary
European Windstorm Risk of Post‐Tropical Cyclones and the Impact of Climate Change
  • R. Haarsma
  • Environmental Science
    Geophysical Research Letters
  • 2021
Sainsbury et al. (2020, highlighted the fact that although post‐tropical cyclones only consist of a small part of the cyclones impacting Northern Europe (∼1%)
11 To understand the impacts of global warming on tropical cyclones (TCs) in 12 midlatitude regions, dynamical downscaling experiments were performed using a 13 4-km-mesh regional model with a


Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High‐Resolution Large‐Ensemble Simulations
Projected future changes in global tropical cyclone (TC) activity are assessed using 5,000 year scale ensemble simulations for both current and 4 K surface warming climates with a 60 km global
Impact of Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Simulation Using the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA Multimodel Ensemble
A multimodel, multiresolution set of simulations over the period 1950–2014 using a common forcing protocol from CMIP6 HighResMIP have been completed by six modeling groups. Analysis of tropical
Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century
  • K. Emanuel
  • Environmental Science
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 2013
Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific, consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output.
Tropical Cyclone Simulation and Response to CO2Doubling in the GFDL CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model
AbstractGlobal tropical cyclone (TC) activity is simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Climate Model, version 2.5 (CM2.5), which is a fully coupled global climate model with a
Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections
North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate, and an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific.
Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model
As one of the first global coupled climate models to simulate and predict category 4 and 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale) tropical cyclones (TCs) and their interannual variations, the High-Resolution
Tropical Cyclones in the UPSCALE Ensemble of High-Resolution Global Climate Models*
AbstractThe U.K. on Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe (PRACE) Weather-Resolving Simulations of Climate for Global Environmental Risk (UPSCALE) project, using PRACE resources, constructed
Tropical Cyclone Climatology in a 10-km Global Atmospheric GCM: Toward Weather-Resolving Climate Modeling
AbstractNorthern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity is investigated in multiyear global climate simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 10-km resolution forced by the
Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models
In recent years, global weather forecast models and global climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to category 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson scale. In light of the limitation
Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes
Responses of tropical cyclones (TCs) to CO2 doubling are explored using coupled global climate models (GCMs) with increasingly refined atmospheric/land horizontal grids (~ 200 km, ~ 50 km and ~ 25