• DOI:10.1029/2020GL088662
• Corpus ID: 221972087

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

@article{Roberts2020ProjectedFC,
  title={Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble},
  author={Malcolm John Roberts and Joanne Camp and Jon Seddon and Pier Luigi Vidale and Kevin I. Hodges and Beno{\^i}t Vanni{\`e}re and Jennifer V. Mecking and Reindert J. Haarsma and Alessio Bellucci and Enrico Scoccimarro and Louis‐Philippe Caron and Fabrice Chauvin and Laurent Terray and Sophie Valcke and M. P. Moine and Dian Ariyani Putrasahan and Christopher D. Roberts and Retish Senan and Colin M. Zarzycki and Paul Aaron Ullrich and Yohei Yamada and Ryo Mizuta and Chihiro Kodama and Dan Fu and Qiuying Zhang and Gokhan Danabasoglu and Nan A. Rosenbloom and Hong Wang and Lixin Wu},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  year={2020},
  volume={47}
}

• M. Roberts, J. Camp, +26 authors Lixin Wu
• Published 19 May 2020
• Environmental Science
• Geophysical Research Letters

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.