# Probability of winning at tennis. I. Theory and data

@inproceedings{Newton2005ProbabilityOW, title={Probability of winning at tennis. I. Theory and data}, author={Paul K. Newton and J. Shen B. Keller}, year={2005} }

- Published 2005
DOI:10.1111/j.0022-2526.2005.01547.x

The probability of winning a game, a set, and a match in tennis are computed, based on each player’s probability of winning a point on serve, which we assume are independent identically distributed (iid) random variables. Both two out of three and three out of five set matches are considered, allowing a 13-point tiebreaker in each set, if necessary. As a by-product of these formulas, we give an explicit proof that the probability of winning a set, and hence a match, is independent of which… CONTINUE READING

#### Citations

##### Publications citing this paper.

SHOWING 1-8 OF 8 CITATIONS

## Professional tennis : quantitative models and ranking algorithms

VIEW 2 EXCERPTS

CITES BACKGROUND

## When to challenge a call in tennis: A Markov decision process approach

VIEW 1 EXCERPT

CITES BACKGROUND

## Inferring Tennis Match Progress from In-Play Betting Odds

VIEW 1 EXCERPT

CITES BACKGROUND

#### References

##### Publications referenced by this paper.

SHOWING 1-10 OF 19 REFERENCES

## POLLARD, An analysis of classical and tie-breaker tennis

VIEW 4 EXCERPTS

HIGHLY INFLUENTIAL

## POLLARD, Service neutral scoring strategies for tennis

VIEW 1 EXCERPT

## Psychological momentum or random effects, Chance 10:27–34 (1997)

VIEW 2 EXCERPTS

## KELLER, Tie point strategies in badminton

VIEW 1 EXCERPT

## MAGNUS, How to reduce the service dominance in tennis? Empirical results from four years at Wimbledon

VIEW 1 EXCERPT

## DYTE, Using official tennis ratings to estimate tournament chances

VIEW 1 EXCERPT

## KLAASSEN, On the advantage of serving first in a tennis set: Four years at Wimbledon

VIEW 3 EXCERPTS

## KLAASSEN, The effect of new balls in tennis: Four years at Wimbledon

VIEW 1 EXCERPT

## STEFANI, Survey of the major world sports rating systems

VIEW 1 EXCERPT

#### Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…