Probability of Winning at Tennis I. Theory and Data

@article{Newton2005ProbabilityOW,
  title={Probability of Winning at Tennis I. Theory and Data},
  author={P. Newton and J. Keller},
  journal={Studies in Applied Mathematics},
  year={2005},
  volume={114},
  pages={241-269}
}
The probability of winning a game, a set, and a match in tennis are computed, based on each player's probability of winning a point on serve, which we assume are independent identically distributed (iid) random variables. Both two out of three and three out of five set matches are considered, allowing a 13-point tiebreaker in each set, if necessary. As a by-product of these formulas, we give an explicit proof that the probability of winning a set, and hence a match, is independent of which… Expand
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