Probability biases as Bayesian inference

@inproceedings{Martins2006ProbabilityBA,
  title={Probability biases as Bayesian inference},
  author={Andre C. R. Martins},
  year={2006}
}
In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the… CONTINUE READING