Probability and Reasonable Expectations: Challenges from an Experiment VERY PRELIMINARY AND INCOMPLETE

Abstract

Modern economics proceeds under the assumption that, when informed by objective probabilities, economic agents (households, firms, policy-makers) tend to make rational, objective predictions of random variables like income, usually via the mean value prediction rule. Mean value is revered by econometricians, due to its centuries-old status as “mathematical… (More)

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Cite this paper

@inproceedings{Gilbert2006ProbabilityAR, title={Probability and Reasonable Expectations: Challenges from an Experiment VERY PRELIMINARY AND INCOMPLETE}, author={Scott F. Gilbert}, year={2006} }