Modern economics proceeds under the assumption that, when informed by objective probabilities, economic agents (households, firms, policy-makers) tend to make rational, objective predictions of random variables like income, usually via the mean value prediction rule. Mean value is revered by econometricians, due to its centuries-old status as “mathematical… (More)

@inproceedings{Gilbert2006ProbabilityAR,
title={Probability and Reasonable Expectations: Challenges from an Experiment VERY PRELIMINARY AND INCOMPLETE},
author={Scott F. Gilbert},
year={2006}
}