Probability Models for Monetary Policy Decisions

  title={Probability Models for Monetary Policy Decisions},
  author={Christopher A. Sims},
To be written. I. THE STATE OF CENTRAL BANK POLICY MODELING I.1. Not probability models. I.2. Ad hoc “econometrics” layered on a “long-run” core. I.3. Lack of a language to discuss uncertainty about models and parameters. I.4. Why models are nonetheless used, and are useful. The need to bring data to bear on policy discussions. There’s a lot of data, and it’s hard to maintain accounting and statistical consistency without a model. I.4.1. Decentralization, model size, “judgment”. I.5. The impact… CONTINUE READING