# Probabilities for large events in driven threshold systems.

@article{Rundle2012ProbabilitiesFL, title={Probabilities for large events in driven threshold systems.}, author={John B. Rundle and James R. Holliday and William R. Graves and Donald L. Turcotte and Kristy F. Tiampo and William Klein}, journal={Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics}, year={2012}, volume={86 2 Pt 1}, pages={ 021106 } }

Many driven threshold systems display a spectrum of avalanche event sizes, often characterized by power-law scaling. An important problem is to compute probabilities of the largest events ("Black Swans"). We develop a data-driven approach to the problem by transforming to the event index frame, and relating this to Shannon information. For earthquakes, we find the 12-month probability for magnitude m>6 earthquakes in California increases from about 30% after the last event, to 40%-50% prior to… Expand

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