• DOI:10.1016/0749-5978(91)90042-R
Corpus ID: 2867213

Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise

@article{Yates1991ProbabilisticFO,
  title={Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise},
  author={J. Yates and Linda S. McDaniel and E. Brown},
  journal={Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes},
  year={1991},
  volume={49},
  pages={60-79}
}

J. Yates, Linda S. McDaniel, E. Brown

Published 1991

Psychology

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Abstract Undergraduate and graduate students in finance courses made probabilistic forecasts of the quarterly changes in the stock prices and earnings of publicly traded companies. Consistent with previous findings ( Stael von Holstein, 1972 ), the overall accuracy of both price and earnings forecasts was very modest; subjects would have been more accurate had they predicted that price changes were equally likely to fall into any of the specified ranges. Also consistent with earlier suggestions… CONTINUE READING

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