Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise

@article{Yates1991ProbabilisticFO,
  title={Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise},
  author={J. Yates and Linda S. McDaniel and Eric S. Brown},
  journal={Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes},
  year={1991},
  volume={49},
  pages={60-79}
}
Abstract Undergraduate and graduate students in finance courses made probabilistic forecasts of the quarterly changes in the stock prices and earnings of publicly traded companies. Consistent with previous findings ( Stael von Holstein, 1972 ), the overall accuracy of both price and earnings forecasts was very modest; subjects would have been more accurate had they predicted that price changes were equally likely to fall into any of the specified ranges. Also consistent with earlier suggestions… Expand

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